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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 17

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 4-J.Lambo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP