Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

(:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to JAX 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 14 for -3 yards (20-J.Scarlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.09 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model