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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Carolina Panthers 28

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to CAR 6, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-31-B.Borders.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model