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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 22-C.McCaffrey left tackle to JAX 7 for -2 yards (44-M.Jack; 95-A.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +3.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.87 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model