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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Carolina Panthers 28

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model