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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 34 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 5-M.Palardy punts 34 yards to JAX 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP