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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model