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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to JAX 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 30 for 5 yards (42-C.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 30.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.17 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP