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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.97 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP