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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.32 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model