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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 5

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Los Angeles Rams 29

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Carson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 5, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model