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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 51

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Los Angeles Rams 29

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LA 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Natson to LA 7 for 1 yard (25-T.Homer).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model