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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to LA 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Natson to LA 31 for 15 yards (55-B.Burr-Kirven).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.94 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model