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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model