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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(12:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-C.Clay to ATL 29 for 6 yards (59-D.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.04 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model