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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model