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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 53

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 4-A.Lee punts 41 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 38-K.Barner to ATL 21 for 9 yards (37-D.Foster). PENALTY on ATL-39-D.White, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at ATL 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 53, worth -3.18 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model