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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 4-A.Lee punts 59 yards to ATL 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 38-K.Barner to ATL 17 for 10 yards (89-A.Isabella; 16-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP