Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 38-K.Barner to ATL 24 for 5 yards (59-J.Walker; 87-M.Williams). PENALTY on ATL-14-J.Hardy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model