Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(7:27) (Punt formation) 9-K.Redfern punts 35 yards to ARI 40, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper. PENALTY on ATL-41-S.Neasman, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.02 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model