Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

(3:02) 9-K.Redfern punts 41 yards to ARI 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.00 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model