Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 77

New York Jets 7 – Dallas Cowboys 3

(13:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to DAL 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.05 EP
74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model