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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to NYJ 17, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model