4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 81

New York Jets 7 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to DAL 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 10-T.Austin to DAL 38 for 1 yard (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 81, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model