Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 64

New York Jets 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to DAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 23 for 7 yards (44-H.Langi). PENALTY on NYJ-47-A.McClellan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.90 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model