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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 7

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left end to NYJ 8 for -1 yards (95-Q.Williams; 33-J.Adams).

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.64 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 7, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model