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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NYJ 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 35 for 12 yards (53-J.March-Lillard).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP