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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 14

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model