Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 57

New York Jets 21 – Dallas Cowboys 9

(11:29) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to DAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-A.Maulet.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model