4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 20

New York Jets 21 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 9-S.Ficken 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.45 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model