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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.06 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP