4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 13 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to DET 33, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-37-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.81 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 84, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model