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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to DET 26, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.48 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model