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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 76

Detroit Lions 19 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(:30) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to GB 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model