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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 5

Green Bay Packers 20 – Detroit Lions 22

What Actually Happened

(:02) 2-M.Crosby 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +2.82 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model