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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 1
Detroit Lions 3 – Green Bay Packers 0
What Actually Happened
(6:41) 33-K.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.67 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.15 EP
KICK
+1.65 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
