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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 21

Houston Texans 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(4:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to KC 14 for 7 yards (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.27 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model