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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model