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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 27

Houston Texans 31 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to KC 19 for 8 yards (32-T.Mathieu) [97-A.Okafor].

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.59 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP