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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(:37) 3-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.55 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model