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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 1-T.Long punts 43 yards to PIT 12, Center-45-C.Mazza. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 21 for 9 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.42 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model