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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to LAC 9, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP