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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 20

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 3-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.55 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model