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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to LAC 21, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model