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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to LAC 14, Center-57-K.Canaday. 20-D.King to LAC 21 for 7 yards (80-J.Holton; 56-A.Chickillo).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model