Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(:52) 1-T.Long punts 44 yards to PIT 14, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.15 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model