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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to DEN 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.61 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model