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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to DEN 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Spencer to TEN 45 for 42 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model