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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 79

Denver Broncos 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 6-C.Wadman punts 52 yards to TEN 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.07 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP