Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 3

(7:32) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model